Business planning is BAD theater

I keep meeting founders obsessed with quarterly plans, yearly plans and long-range roadmaps

I get it. It feels responsible. It feels like leadership. It’s what everyone is doing. 

But it's mostly pretending.

The farther out you plan, the more you're pretending certainty exists.

If you're a small business or a startup, 1 year is beyond your horizon. You can't see that far. You may not survive 6 months. 

You have no idea what market shift, technology wave, or external shock is coming. (These days, new Claude features disrupt entire industries overnight.)

The plan isn't the problem. The false confidence is.

So what's the right planning horizon for your stage?

I love this mental model from bomb disposal training:

What's the smallest next step I can take that won't kill me?
That's it. That's the plan.

Shorten the horizon. Reduce the scope. Focus on the next concrete step. Stay positioned to adapt.

For many teams, 6 weeks is more useful than a full quarter. A clear next step beats a detailed roadmap that breaks on contact with reality.

Plan ahead. Just don't confuse planning with control.